Processes

Perform back-testing

How perform back-testing are reshaped as AGI capability advances.

ProcessesPerform back-testing
Perform back-testing — illustrated

Business-as-Code

Read as an executable program — the work decomposed into Code, Generative, Agentic, and Human.

Perform back-testing sits inside a larger value-flow — 1 parent structure it composes into. The hierarchy is grounding, not the story: it tells you which aggregate exposure Perform back-testing inherits.

Where Perform back-testing sits

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How the work flows

Trigger: A new predictive model is proposed, an existing model reaches its scheduled review date, or a regulatory mandate requires validation.

  1. Define the back-testing scope and extract relevant historical datasets
  2. Run the predictive model or strategy against the historical data
  3. Compare the model's generated predictions against actual historical outcomes
  4. Calculate error margins, variance, and confidence intervals
  5. Investigate underlying causes for significant predictive deviations or breaches
  6. Compile the validation report with findings and recalibration recommendations

Outcome: The model's predictive accuracy is quantified against historical data, resulting in a validation report that either approves the model for use or mandates recalibration.

Measured by

Prediction Accuracy RateModel Breach CountValidation Cycle TimeMean Absolute Error