Processes
Perform uncertainty analysis
How perform uncertainty analysis are reshaped as AGI capability advances.
ProcessesPerform uncertainty analysis
Business-as-Code
Read as an executable program — the work decomposed into Code, Generative, Agentic, and Human.
Perform uncertainty analysis sits inside a larger value-flow — 1 parent structure it composes into. The hierarchy is grounding, not the story: it tells you which aggregate exposure Perform uncertainty analysis inherits.
Where Perform uncertainty analysis sits
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How the work flows
Trigger: A deterministic reservoir model or proposed development plan requires probabilistic risk assessment before capital is committed.
- Identify critical geological, operational, and economic variables
- Assign probability distributions and boundary ranges to each variable
- Run Monte Carlo simulations on the reservoir or economic model
- Calculate P10, P50, and P90 confidence intervals for targeted outcomes
- Create sensitivity charts to highlight primary risk drivers
- Compile the uncertainty profile and risk mitigation recommendations
Outcome: A comprehensive uncertainty model is generated to provide probabilistic reserve estimates and economic forecasts for decision-makers.
Measured by
Analysis Cycle TimeReserve Estimation AccuracySimulation Rerun Rate